Barclays Bank: XPEV, NIO & LI (Product Roadmap & Outlook)

LI appears to be having robust success in its new product launches: LI used to be a one product company (LI One) and rightly investors were concerned about LI’s ability to design and launch successful new products. So far, LI has proven it can do just that. Since the initial deliveries of L9 last Sep, sales of L9 have been strong and our recent online checks suggested consumer reviews have been generally positive. Deliveries of L8 (upgraded version of original LI One) since last Nov have also been solid and met with positive consumer reviews. In addition, LI has announced a smaller SUV L7 (smallest in its portfolio) and its deliveries will start in March. All these models are PHEVs, and LI has yet to prove it can make a popular BEV. But so far, LI’s track record in expanding its product pipeline has been good. We rate LI OW. NIO continues steady expansion of its product pipeline: After successful launches of its first ever sedans ET5 and ET7 last year, NIO has plans to upgrade 3 of its existing models and launch 2 new ones in the 1H of 23. In addition, NIO has an upgraded version of its battery swapping stations. In general, we consider that NIO has been broadly successful in expanding its product portfolio from original high end SUVs to sedans and coupes. We are somewhat concerned about its commitment to battery swapping technology and infrastructure, however. We view rapid development in battery technology, which would enable much faster charging, could soon drive the value (in convenience) in battery swapping much lower. By making significant investments in continuing to build out battery swapping infrastructure, returns on such investments may start to diminish. We rate NIO OW…