February 24, 2023, marks a depressing anniversary: exactly 12 months since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, initiating what has become one of the most pivotal, period-defining international crises in the post-Cold War era. This week, we hosted an investor call with Bruce Jentleson, the William Preston Few Distinguished Professor of Public Policy at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and author of the book Sanctions: What Everyone Needs to Know. Today, building on the Raymond James policy research team’s perspectives published this week, we are providing a one-year update on three of the war's key dimensions: geostrategic issues, particularly vis-a-vis NATO; internal politics in Moscow, Kyiv, and other key capitals; and economic consequences, including in the energy sector. How is NATO expansion progressing? To what extent are Russia’s traditional allies breaking with the Kremlin? What is the role of Russian business leaders? How will their 2024 re-election campaigns influence the thinking of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky? How effective are the sanctions against Russia? How is Europe disentangling from Russian fossil fuels? This report addresses these and other questions. NATO’s Scandivanian expansion points to the reshaping of European geopolitics... In attempting to justify the war at...
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